FPL DEFCON Points: What They Are and How to Predict Them

A hidden edge in FPL that most managers ignore — and how to exploit it.

What are DEFCON points?

DEFCON points are a +2 bonus awarded to defenders and midfielders who record 10 or more clearances, blocks, and interceptions (CBIs) in a single match. Forwards have a higher threshold — they need 12 or more to qualify. The rule was introduced in the 2024/25 FPL season to reward players who are defensively active across the entire pitch, not just those who keep clean sheets.

The bonus is automatic and added on top of all other points. A central midfielder who makes 11 CBIs in a 0-0 draw picks up clean sheet points, any relevant stats, and an extra 2 points on top. For budget players who rarely threaten attacking returns, that 2-point swing can be the difference between a gameweek bust and a decent score.

CBIs are counted individually: a clearance is one action, a block is one action, an interception is one action. A player who makes 4 clearances, 3 blocks, and 4 interceptions in a single game reaches 11 — enough to qualify. The threshold is per-game, so there is no accumulation across multiple gameweeks.

Which players score DEFCON points most?

The profile for a likely DEFCON scorer is consistent: central defenders who defend a high line, covering ground quickly and making decisive interventions. These are players on teams who press aggressively rather than sitting deep, because high defensive lines force more aerial duels, last-ditch blocks, and interceptions in dangerous areas. A team that defends at 40 yards naturally generates more CBI opportunities than one who parks the bus at 20.

Holding midfielders with high tackle and interception rates are the other main source. A player who consistently sits in front of the back four, breaking up play at source, can comfortably average 10+ CBIs in matches where they are deployed in a defensive role. Their bonus contribution is almost invisible in the official FPL statistics but becomes very visible when you track raw CBI data across a season.

Full-backs who defend narrow rather than overlapping are an underrated DEFCON source too. A right back on a team who defends with a compact 4-4-2 block often ends a match with 5-6 clearances, 2-3 blocks, and a couple of interceptions — close to the threshold in every game and over it in the tougher fixtures. Because these players are priced for their lack of attacking output, they routinely trade at £4.0m–£4.5m while quietly contributing more points than their price implies.

How PLFantasyTool predicts DEFCON points

Our model builds a DEFCON probability for each eligible player using their historical CBI rate — the average number of clearances, blocks, and interceptions they record per 90 minutes across recent matches. We weight recent games more heavily than older ones so the model reacts to tactical changes, like a manager switching a midfielder to a deeper defensive role.

CBI rate alone is not enough. We also factor in opponent strength. A player who averages 9 CBIs per game against mid-table opposition will likely exceed 10 against a top-six side pressing hard from the front. Fixture difficulty is applied as a multiplier: tougher opponent, higher expected CBI count for defensive players. This is the opposite of the calculation for attacking players, where harder fixtures reduce projected returns.

The resulting DEFCON probability — say, a 35% chance of reaching the CBI threshold in a given gameweek — is multiplied by 2 and added directly to the player's expected points. A £4.5m defender with a 0.7 expected points base who carries a 35% DEFCON chance actually projects at 1.4 xP, making them far more interesting than the raw figure suggests. These hidden value pockets are exactly what the Defcon Predictor tool surfaces.

How to use this in your FPL strategy

DEFCON points are most valuable when selecting budget defenders and midfielders — the £4.0m–£5.0m range where most managers sacrifice quality for squad depth. At this price point, attacking returns are rare, so the points difference between a similar budget options often comes down to clean sheets and defensive bonuses. A player with a consistently high CBI rate effectively adds a floor to their weekly score.

The strategic play is to treat DEFCON probability as a tiebreaker. When two budget defenders have similar ownership, fixtures, and clean sheet odds, the one with a higher historical CBI rate will outperform on average over a full season. Over 38 gameweeks, the difference between a 20% DEFCON player and a 35% DEFCON player compounds to roughly 5-6 additional points — equivalent to a free transfer's worth of value for no extra cost.

It is also worth looking at DEFCON potential when planning for blank or double gameweeks. A high-CBI player with two fixtures in a double gameweek has two separate opportunities to clear the threshold, effectively doubling their DEFCON expected value for that week. These are the moments where the model's predictions create the clearest edges over managers who rely only on anecdotal intuition.

See every player's DEFCON probability alongside their full expected points breakdown.

See DEFCON predictions in the optimizer →